Gartner Trends @ ITxpo

Wireless performance and latency have improved and will continue to do so over the coming years. Gartner analyst states:

• LTE has the potential to unify CDMA and GSM, and has defined a path to LTE-A, which will be ITU-4G-compliant. LTE will start deployment arund 2010 and should be able t deliver a reliable 10/10 experience (10Mbps at 10 ms latency, which is sufficient for a wide range of apps).
• WiMax will remain a relative niche for the next 3 years, serving more as a metro-area fill-in network than a natiowide compeitor to cellular. WiMax client devices will be relatively scarce compared with cellular devices. WiMax may be more attractive in emerging markts where wired broadband is weaker.
• 802.11n will slowly replace 100 Mbps wired Ethernet to enable “all-wireless” homes and offices.

Nokia’s Symbian OS is expected to have the large part of the world market due to all the emerging markets over the coming years.

TAGS:  Gartner, Wireless, Mobile, IT Trends

Billions of dollars are spent each year by these major technology firms. Executives from each of the the R&D groups spoke about some of the new technlogies that are being explored.

Rich Friedrich of HP talked location-based services and context-aware services. Their work on the blending of virtual and actual worlds in location-based services has evolved into Mediascape. Context-aware and sensor-based services resulted in a program called CeNSE: The Central Nervous System for the Earth where one trillion nanoscale sensors and actuators will need the equvalent of 1000 Internets to collect data. They’re working with other large global companies like BP, Brinks, and others to use the data those companies are already collecting as part of their primary business.

David Douglas of Sun discussed improvements in microprocessors beyond what we’re seing now. He talked about “proximity communications” – a capacitor that has charger/amplifiers that connect two silicon chips by putting them in close proximity to each other with a special connector enabling them to work together doubling the power.

Guido Jouret of Cisco talked about their “Health Presence Pods” which enables a patient at a remote location to be diagnosed by a doctor in another location. The pod has various types of technology like an oversize screen, privacy, and medical devices like a heart monitor, blood pressure machine, stethoscope, etc. Cisco has deployed these within their company with great success. Their staff say that the privacy and functionality makes it feel like the doctor is right there with you. Other uses of these “presence pods” could be legal depositions from a distance, interviews with prisoners (who otherwise would be very costly to transport), and others.

Steve Hoover of Xerox showed examples of reusable paper. In the same way that eye glasses can be treated to turn into sunglasses when they are exposed to UV rays of the sun, paper can be treated and then printed on with UVLED printers, or written on with UVLED pens. The paper can then be used over and over hundreds of times without waste. Paper cost may end up being 3 times the cost of normal paper, but with its reusability, it will more than make up for the additional cost. He also talked about a digital mailroom where paper mail is scanned and distibuted digitally with meta data captured making e-discovery and other access much more efficient.

One last piece of parting advice from Guido Jouret of Cisco was this:

“Implement social networking and collaboration within the enterprise, and use video in all its forms for everything.”

The Emerging Trends Radar Screen is another way to look at many of the topics we’ve been hearing about at the conference. Looking at the graphic, it’s easy to see how the shifts in technology move into these emerging technologies over time.

Some of the items highlighted by Jackie Fenn were:

For the Web, it’s a move from Web 2.0 to the Real World Web. Web 2.0 is about participation, communities, rich user interfaces, ratings, tagging, and social interaction. Real World Web is about context (WYNIWYG), is proactive, has identity/avatar management, has the environment as an interface, where tagging improves machine access and it’s all supported by the network, wireless, sensors, location, and semantic technologies.

3D Printing is also on the emerging trends radar. The printers are reasonably priced from $20,000 down to $5,000. See more information in an earlier post below.

Computers are beginning to look like items in our environments instead of the typical computer keyboard, CPU, and monitor we’ve seen for decades. Surface computing with touch interfaces (like iPhone) and gesture interfaces (think Wii) are the future for many computing technologies.

Mobile Robots that do household chores (think iRobot Roomba) and specific task work (like carrying and lifting, emergency response and rescue). Robots are being developed by the Army to rescue wounded soldiers from battle – a very dangerous job. There are also opportunities for robots in healthcare industries (like InTouch Health’s mobile videoconferencing robots for physicians).

Emerging Power:  solar power, shoes and other forms of scavenging power. Supercapacitors, microcombustion and microturbines are also on the radar.

One of my favorite sessions at Gartner is the discussion on the top 10 disruptive technologies. In determining which technologies make the list of most disruptive, the research analysts are looking at how high the degree of impact will be, how broad the degree of impact will be, and the timing of the impact. I believe there may be a two more factors in their analysis, but they neglected to mention them in the session. I’ll do a bit more digging to find them. Based on their analysis, the following list was determined:

Top 10 Disruptive Technologies:

1. Multicore and Hybrids – implications on operating systems, software, software speeds, operational impact, and so much more.
2. Social Networks and Social Software – links, discussions, comments, ratings, bookmarks, tags, friends lists, refinements, references, rich user profiles, etc.
3. User Interface – organic light-emitting diode displays, digital paper and billboards, holographic and 3D, VRML to X3D, virtual keyboards, smart fabric, gesture recognition, etc.
4. Cloud Computing and Cloud/Web Platforms – a style of computing in which massively scalable IT-enabled capabilities are provided “as a service” across the Internet to multiple external customers.
5. Web Mashups – Will change the way users consume services and the way companies provide them. See Gartner prediction in earlier post below.
6. Ubiquitous Computing – We’ve gone from thousands of people per computer in the 1960s, and we’re heading toward thouands of computers per person in th future.
7. Contextual Computing – WYNIWYG – Gartner Predicts:  By 2012, context-enriched serviceswill impact a $215 billion/year B2C opportunity.
8. Augmented Reality – overlaying informaiton onto our real world
9. Semantic Technologies (7-10 years out at least) – moving intelligence from applications to data – having richer metadata about information that’s already there.
10. Virtualization – beyond consolidation – DR and BizCon – Software distribution.

What now?  CIOs, enterprise architects, and software developers should…

Today:

• Esablish a formal mechanism to identify, analye and plan for potentially disruptive technologies.
• Develop a strategy for social networking inside and outside the enterprise in partnership with sales, marketing, HR, digital natives, and other folks who have a stake in building communities of interest.

Near Future (next 12 months):

• Demand that your technology providers explain how clou computing will affect their offering and pricing strategies.
• Establish enlightened policies for employee activity in public social networks.
• Position to take advantage of the disruptive potential of virualization.

Longer Term:

• Begin bringing in the islands of semantics and context together in a federated standards-based framework.

TAGS: Disruption Technology, Emerging Trends

Cloud computing is going to be a hot topic at Gartner this year. They will be researching, discussing, and forecasting many different angles of how this transition from products to services will affect the business of IT as well as the services of IT. As businesses look at the many possibilities with cloud computing, it is also important to evaluate the issues of intellectual property, e-discovery, and security when deciding how and when to use these new services in the cloud. Gartner hasn’t yet thoroughly reviewed those issues, but their early look at emerging trends are below.

The Trends:   

• Consumer demand for web-delivered services is growing.
• SaaS is only the beginning. Soon everything will be a service.
• Internal private clouds will proliferate quickly. Internal service delivery will guarantee safety.
• The cloud is already upsetting technology sales models.
• The cloud will upset economic models as well.

The Implications:  

• Vendors will be forced to introduce cloud platforms – even if they aren’t ready.
• User customers will have to learn to manage service contracts rather than product licenses.

CIOs, BUSINESS LEADERS, VENDORS and CONSUMERS should:   Today:  

• Start cataloguing which cloud services are available (from Amazon to Zoho), and consider what they mean to you or your customers’ interests.
• Direct emerging technology teams to evaluate cloud computing and Web/cloud platform technologies, and explore various adoption scenarios.

Near Future (next 12 months):  

• Start evaluating your technology legacy and how modernization would affect it.
• Demand that your technology providers explain how Web/cloud platform models will affect their offerings and pricing strategies.
• Determine whether the cloud ultimately will be robust enough to meet your business goals.

 Finally, with the industrialization of IT as companies offer cloud computing services, impact in the creation of big data centers and increases in mass production are expected.

TAGS: Cloud Computing, Gartner, Emerging Trends